@article {84067, title = {Large geographic variability in the resistance of corals to thermal stress}, journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography}, year = {2020}, month = {10/2020}, abstract = {

Predictions for the future of coral reefs are largely based on thermal exposure and poorly account for potential geographic variation in biological sensitivity to thermal stress. Without accounting for complex sensitivity responses, simple climate exposure models and associated predictions may lead to poor estimates of future coral survival and lead to policies that fail to identify and implement the most appropriate interventions. To begin filling this gap, we evaluated a number of attributes of coral taxa and communities that are predicted to influence coral resistance to thermal stress over a large geographic range.

}, doi = {10.1111/geb.13191}, author = {McClanahan, Tim R and Maina, Joseph M and Darling, Emily S and Guillaume, Mireille M and Muthiga, Nyawira and D{\textquoteright}agata, Stephanie and Leblond, Julien and Arthur, Rohan and Jupiter, Stacy D and Wilson, Shaun and Mangubhai, Sangeeta and Ussi, Ali M and Humphries, Austin T and Patankar, Vardhan and Shedrawi, George and Julius, Pagu and Ndagala, January and Grimsditch, Gabriel} } @article {62916, title = {Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene.}, journal = {Nat Ecol Evol}, year = {2019}, month = {2019 Aug 12}, abstract = {

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of \>10\% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.

}, issn = {2397-334X}, doi = {10.1038/s41559-019-0953-8}, author = {Darling, Emily S and McClanahan, Tim R and Maina, Joseph and Gurney, Georgina G and Graham, Nicholas A J and Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser and Cinner, Joshua E and Mora, Camilo and Hicks, Christina C and Maire, Eva and Puotinen, Marji and Skirving, William J and Adjeroud, Mehdi and Ahmadia, Gabby and Arthur, Rohan and Bauman, Andrew G and Beger, Maria and Berumen, Michael L and Bigot, Lionel and Bouwmeester, Jessica and Brenier, Ambroise and Bridge, Tom C L and Brown, Eric and Campbell, Stuart J and Cannon, Sara and Cauvin, Bruce and Chen, Chaolun Allen and Claudet, Joachim and Denis, Vianney and Donner, Simon and Fadli, Nur and Feary, David A and Fenner, Douglas and Fox, Helen and Franklin, Erik C and Friedlander, Alan and Gilmour, James and Goiran, Claire and Guest, James and Hobbs, Jean-Paul A and Hoey, Andrew S and Houk, Peter and Johnson, Steven and Jupiter, Stacy D and Kayal, Mohsen and Kuo, Chao-Yang and Lamb, Joleah and Lee, Michelle A C and Low, Jeffrey and Muthiga, Nyawira and Muttaqin, Efin and Nand, Yashika and Nash, Kirsty L and Nedlic, Osamu and Pandolfi, John M and Pardede, Shinta and Patankar, Vardhan and Penin, Lucie and Ribas-Deulofeu, Lauriane and Richards, Zoe and Roberts, T Edward and Rodgers, Ku{\textquoteright}ulei S and Safuan, Che Din Mohd and Sala, Enric and Shedrawi, George and Sin, Tsai Min and Smallhorn-West, Patrick and Smith, Jennifer E and Sommer, Brigitte and Steinberg, Peter D and Sutthacheep, Makamas and Tan, Chun Hong James and Williams, Gareth J and Wilson, Shaun and Yeemin, Thamasak and Bruno, John F and Fortin, Marie-Jos{\'e}e and Krkosek, Martin and Mouillot, David} } @article {70225, title = {Temperature patterns and mechanisms influencing coral bleaching during the 2016 El Nino}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {9}, year = {2019}, month = {09/2019}, pages = {845{\textendash}851}, type = {Letter}, abstract = {

Under extreme heat stress, corals expel their symbiotic algae and colour (that is, {\textquoteleft}bleaching{\textquoteright}), which often leads to widespread mortality. Predicting the large-scale environmental conditions that reinforce or mitigate coral bleaching remains unresolved and limits strategic conservation actions1,2. Here we assessed coral bleaching at 226 sites and 26 environmental variables that represent different mechanisms of stress responses from East Africa to Fiji through a coordinated effort to evaluate the coral response to the 2014{\textendash}2016 El Ni{\~n}o/Southern Oscillation thermal anomaly. We applied common time-series methods to study the temporal patterning of acute thermal stress and evaluated the effectiveness of conventional and new sea surface temperature metrics and mechanisms in predicting bleaching severity. The best models indicated the importance of peak hot temperatures, the duration of cool temperatures and temperature bimodality, which explained ~50\% of the variance, compared to the common degree-heating week temperature index that explained only 9\%. Our findings suggest that the threshold concept as a mechanism to explain bleaching alone was not as powerful as the multidimensional interactions of stresses, which include the duration and temporal patterning of hot and cold temperature extremes relative to average local conditions.

}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0576-8}, author = {McClanahan, Tim R and Darling, Emily S and Maina, Joseph M and Muthiga, Nyawira A and D{\textquoteright}agata, Stephanie and Jupiter, Stacy D and Arthur, Rohan and Wilson, Shaun K and Mangubhai, Sangeeta and Nand, Yashika and Ussi, Ali M and Humphries, Austin T and Patankar, Vardhan J and Guillaume, Mireille M and Keith, Sally A and Shedrawi, George and Julius, Pagu and Grimsditch, Gabriel and Ndagala, January and Leblond, Julien} }